Every morning at 7, a turkey sees the farmer approaching to feed him. The first mornings it is a bit scared but then it gains confidence until the Thanksgiving day comes…and the turkey is ready for the oven!

This is a cognitive bias or, rather, a bias of induction, that is, a false belief caused by a well-established habit. When you think that something will happen in a certain way because you are used to it, then you believe that that same thing will always happen like that and you don’t think it may change.

Until when it was discovered that black swans existed in Australia, in Europe we used to believe that only white swans existed.

This type of bias has caused (and will continue to cause) a lot of problems to people, including financial ones (think at economical crisis, for instance).

Turkeys and swans remind us that it is better not to take anything for granted as unexpected things in life happen!